Fearless Oscar predictions

January 7, 2011 --

One of my New Year's resolutions is to do things early. So expect my annual Top Ten List on MLK's Birthday! And why should I wait for the Academy Award nominations to be announced? (January 25th, 7:30 a.m. Central). I will charge ahead with my predictions for who gets nominated -- in the Best Foreign-Language Film category.

This is easier than it sounds, now that the Academy has started announcing a "short list" for nominations in the Foreign Film and Documentary Feature category. Now, instead of waiting until nomination morning to be outraged by the Academy's unexplicable slights, we can be outraged two weeks in advance. For example, this year's short-list for Best Documentary does not include the well-received "Marwencol," "Sweetgrass," or "Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work." !

Who can forget the outrage that accompanied the foreign film short-list for 2008, when Romania's "Four Months, Three Weeks, Two Days" was excluded. The Outrage! It took me awhile to accept the fact that the whole system is rigged: each country can only submit one entry, so much of what gets chosen is dependent on favoritism, politics, etc. (like the World Cup selection). So this year, don't expect to see these foreign favorites nominated: I Am Love (Italy), White Material (France) or any of the "Dragon Tattoo" movies (released in 2009, but I'm sure Sweden could have nominated one). Instead, they have pinned their hopes on a movie called "Simple Simon." Go figure.

I haven't seen a short list yet, so I am making my choices based on the original list of 65 movies (including first time submissions from Ethiopia and Greenland!). Truthfully, I only chose movies I have heard of, so there may be some dark horses to emerge, but here goes:

Kawasaki's Rose (Czech) - since this is the only one of the 65 I have actually seen, I have to include it.
Of Gods and Men (France) - it's about monks. Good reviews.
Biutiful (Mexico) - actually a Mexico-Spain co-production, but it has a big name star and director behind it.
The Edge (Russia) - know nothing about it, but it has a Golden Globe nomination.
"Uncle Boonmee ..." (Thailand) - big winner at Cannes; I will spare you the actual Thai title and director's name.

That leaves Romania out in the cold -- again! But if one of these gets dropped, I would add Florian Serban's "If I Want to Whistle, I Whistle" (an award winner at Berlin). Other dark horses are:
- Denmark's Globe-nominated "In a Better World."
- Greece's experimental "Dogtooth"
- Turkey's "Bal" (Honey), also at Berlin.

Greece vs. Turkey: now that would be as brutal as a World Cup match!